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20260504_140000_BTC_1_v8.6_dryrun_paperfill.jsonl

BTC 15m btc-updown-15m-1777903200
Winner: UP
Strategy
v8.6
Question
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET
Run Note
v86-david
Mode
paper-fill
Inferred P&L
$2.90
Guaranteed P&L
$2.90
Winner
UP
BTC Move
172.4
Total Cost
118.1927
Fills
129
Orders
1269
Fees Paid
$0.00
0 takers

Position evolution

taker buy taker sell

PSum & Guaranteed P&L

taker buy taker sell
Trade Log (129) Fills by Price (67) Per Minute (7) Event Log (991)
t Side Outcome Price Size USDC Fee UP shares DN shares UP avg DN avg PSum Net cost
0s BUY Down $0.460 5.00 $2.30 -- 0 5 -- $0.460 -- $2.30
6s BUY Down $0.470 5.00 $2.35 -- 0 10 -- $0.465 -- $4.65
56s BUY Down $0.470 5.00 $2.35 -- 0 15 -- $0.467 -- $7.00
57s BUY Down $0.460 5.00 $2.30 -- 0 20 -- $0.465 -- $9.30
63s BUY Down $0.470 5.52 $2.59 -- 0 26 -- $0.466 -- $11.89
63s BUY Down $0.470 4.48 $2.11 -- 0 30 -- $0.467 -- $14.00
64s BUY Down $0.450 5.63 $2.54 -- 0 36 -- $0.464 -- $16.54
64s BUY Down $0.450 4.37 $1.96 -- 0 40 -- $0.463 -- $18.50
64s BUY Down $0.430 5.00 $2.15 -- 0 45 -- $0.459 -- $20.65
88s BUY Up $0.460 5.00 $2.30 -- 5 45 $0.460 $0.459 0.919 $22.95
88s SELL Down $0.550 5.00 $2.75 -- 5 40 $0.460 $0.448 0.907 $20.20
89s BUY Up $0.430 5.81 $2.50 -- 11 40 $0.444 $0.448 0.891 $22.70
89s BUY Up $0.430 4.19 $1.80 -- 15 40 $0.440 $0.448 0.887 $24.50
91s BUY Up $0.430 6.92 $2.98 -- 22 40 $0.437 $0.448 0.884 $27.48
91s SELL Down $0.570 5.00 $2.85 -- 22 35 $0.437 $0.430 0.867 $24.63
91s BUY Up $0.430 3.08 $1.32 -- 25 35 $0.436 $0.430 0.866 $25.95
92s BUY Up $0.420 5.73 $2.41 -- 31 35 $0.433 $0.430 0.863 $28.36
92s SELL Down $0.580 5.00 $2.90 -- 31 30 $0.433 $0.405 0.838 $25.46
92s BUY Up $0.420 4.27 $1.79 -- 35 30 $0.431 $0.405 0.836 $27.25
110s BUY Up $0.470 5.00 $2.35 -- 40 30 $0.436 $0.405 0.841 $29.60
129s BUY Up $0.400 5.09 $2.04 -- 45 30 $0.432 $0.405 0.837 $31.64
129s BUY Up $0.400 4.91 $1.96 -- 50 30 $0.429 $0.405 0.834 $33.60
130s BUY Up $0.360 6.81 $2.45 -- 57 30 $0.421 $0.405 0.826 $36.05
130s BUY Up $0.360 3.19 $1.15 -- 60 30 $0.417 $0.405 0.823 $37.20
134s BUY Up $0.350 6.19 $2.17 -- 66 30 $0.411 $0.405 0.816 $39.37
134s BUY Up $0.350 3.81 $1.33 -- 70 30 $0.408 $0.405 0.813 $40.70
151s BUY Up $0.370 5.92 $2.19 -- 76 30 $0.405 $0.405 0.810 $42.89
151s BUY Up $0.370 4.08 $1.51 -- 80 30 $0.403 $0.405 0.808 $44.40
152s BUY Up $0.340 6.33 $2.15 -- 86 30 $0.399 $0.405 0.803 $46.55
153s BUY Up $0.340 3.67 $1.25 -- 90 30 $0.396 $0.405 0.801 $47.80
160s BUY Up $0.330 5.00 $1.65 -- 95 30 $0.393 $0.405 0.798 $49.45
167s BUY Up $0.340 5.00 $1.70 -- 100 30 $0.390 $0.405 0.795 $51.15
172s BUY Up $0.260 5.38 $1.40 -- 105 30 $0.383 $0.405 0.788 $52.55
172s BUY Up $0.260 4.62 $1.20 -- 110 30 $0.378 $0.405 0.783 $53.75
172s BUY Up $0.250 5.00 $1.25 -- 115 30 $0.373 $0.405 0.778 $55.00
192s BUY Up $0.230 5.00 $1.15 -- 120 30 $0.367 $0.405 0.772 $56.15
199s BUY Up $0.190 5.00 $0.95 -- 125 30 $0.360 $0.405 0.765 $57.10
212s BUY Up $0.210 5.27 $1.11 -- 130 30 $0.354 $0.405 0.759 $58.21
212s BUY Up $0.210 4.73 $0.99 -- 135 30 $0.348 $0.405 0.753 $59.20
217s BUY Up $0.170 5.59 $0.95 -- 141 30 $0.341 $0.405 0.746 $60.15
218s BUY Up $0.170 4.41 $0.75 -- 145 30 $0.336 $0.405 0.741 $60.90
222s BUY Up $0.210 6.16 $1.29 -- 151 30 $0.331 $0.405 0.736 $62.19
222s BUY Up $0.210 3.84 $0.81 -- 155 30 $0.328 $0.405 0.733 $63.00
683s SELL Up $0.340 5.00 $1.70 -- 150 30 $0.328 $0.405 0.733 $61.30
683s SELL Up $0.350 5.00 $1.75 -- 145 30 $0.327 $0.405 0.732 $59.55
683s SELL Up $0.380 5.00 $1.90 -- 140 30 $0.325 $0.405 0.730 $57.65
684s SELL Up $0.410 5.00 $2.05 -- 135 30 $0.322 $0.405 0.727 $55.60
684s SELL Up $0.460 5.00 $2.30 -- 130 30 $0.317 $0.405 0.722 $53.30
686s SELL Up $0.470 5.00 $2.35 -- 125 30 $0.310 $0.405 0.715 $50.95
687s BUY Up $0.450 5.92 $2.66 -- 131 30 $0.317 $0.405 0.722 $53.61
688s BUY Up $0.450 4.08 $1.84 -- 135 30 $0.321 $0.405 0.726 $55.45
688s SELL Up $0.440 5.00 $2.20 -- 130 30 $0.316 $0.405 0.721 $53.25
692s BUY Up $0.440 5.59 $2.46 -- 136 30 $0.321 $0.405 0.726 $55.71
692s BUY Up $0.440 4.41 $1.94 -- 140 30 $0.325 $0.405 0.730 $57.65
692s BUY Up $0.420 6.79 $2.85 -- 147 30 $0.329 $0.405 0.734 $60.50
692s BUY Up $0.420 3.21 $1.35 -- 150 30 $0.331 $0.405 0.736 $61.85
693s SELL Up $0.450 5.00 $2.25 -- 145 30 $0.327 $0.405 0.732 $59.60
703s BUY Up $0.450 6.84 $3.08 -- 152 30 $0.333 $0.405 0.738 $62.68
707s SELL Up $0.470 5.00 $2.35 -- 147 30 $0.328 $0.405 0.733 $60.33
709s SELL Up $0.500 5.00 $2.50 -- 142 30 $0.322 $0.405 0.727 $57.83
713s SELL Up $0.520 5.00 $2.60 -- 137 30 $0.315 $0.405 0.720 $55.23
714s SELL Up $0.540 5.00 $2.70 -- 132 30 $0.306 $0.405 0.711 $52.53
714s BUY Down $0.460 6.62 $3.04 -- 132 37 $0.306 $0.415 0.721 $55.57
714s BUY Down $0.460 3.38 $1.56 -- 132 40 $0.306 $0.419 0.725 $57.13
714s BUY Down $0.440 6.19 $2.72 -- 132 46 $0.306 $0.422 0.728 $59.85
714s SELL Up $0.590 5.00 $2.95 -- 127 46 $0.295 $0.422 0.717 $56.90
714s BUY Down $0.440 3.81 $1.68 -- 127 50 $0.295 $0.423 0.718 $58.58
714s SELL Up $0.600 5.00 $3.00 -- 122 50 $0.283 $0.423 0.706 $55.58
714s BUY Down $0.400 5.00 $2.00 -- 122 55 $0.283 $0.421 0.704 $57.58
716s BUY Up $0.450 3.16 $1.42 -- 125 55 $0.287 $0.421 0.708 $59.00
716s SELL Up $0.620 5.00 $3.10 -- 120 55 $0.273 $0.421 0.694 $55.90
716s BUY Down $0.380 6.72 $2.55 -- 120 62 $0.273 $0.416 0.689 $58.45
716s BUY Down $0.380 3.28 $1.25 -- 120 65 $0.273 $0.415 0.688 $59.70
718s BUY Down $0.370 6.01 $2.22 -- 120 71 $0.273 $0.411 0.684 $61.92
718s BUY Down $0.370 3.99 $1.48 -- 120 75 $0.273 $0.409 0.682 $63.40
718s SELL Up $0.640 5.00 $3.20 -- 115 75 $0.257 $0.409 0.666 $60.20
720s SELL Up $0.650 5.00 $3.25 -- 110 75 $0.239 $0.409 0.648 $56.95
720s BUY Down $0.350 5.00 $1.75 -- 110 80 $0.239 $0.405 0.644 $58.70
721s SELL Up $0.670 5.00 $3.35 -- 105 80 $0.219 $0.405 0.624 $55.35
721s BUY Down $0.330 6.02 $1.99 -- 105 86 $0.219 $0.400 0.618 $57.34
721s BUY Down $0.330 3.98 $1.31 -- 105 90 $0.219 $0.397 0.615 $58.65
722s BUY Down $0.310 5.02 $1.56 -- 105 95 $0.219 $0.392 0.611 $60.21
722s BUY Down $0.310 4.98 $1.54 -- 105 100 $0.219 $0.388 0.607 $61.75
723s BUY Down $0.300 5.35 $1.60 -- 105 105 $0.219 $0.384 0.602 $63.35
723s BUY Down $0.300 4.65 $1.40 -- 105 110 $0.219 $0.380 0.599 $64.75
725s BUY Down $0.330 6.77 $2.23 -- 105 117 $0.219 $0.377 0.596 $66.98
725s BUY Down $0.330 3.23 $1.07 -- 105 120 $0.219 $0.376 0.594 $68.05
727s BUY Down $0.270 5.00 $1.35 -- 105 125 $0.219 $0.372 0.590 $69.40
730s BUY Down $0.300 6.78 $2.03 -- 105 132 $0.219 $0.368 0.587 $71.43
731s BUY Down $0.300 3.22 $0.97 -- 105 135 $0.219 $0.366 0.585 $72.40
731s BUY Down $0.280 5.00 $1.40 -- 105 140 $0.219 $0.363 0.582 $73.80
732s BUY Down $0.260 6.96 $1.81 -- 105 147 $0.219 $0.358 0.577 $75.61
732s BUY Down $0.260 3.04 $0.79 -- 105 150 $0.219 $0.356 0.575 $76.40
733s BUY Down $0.250 5.27 $1.32 -- 105 155 $0.219 $0.353 0.571 $77.72
733s BUY Down $0.250 4.73 $1.18 -- 105 160 $0.219 $0.350 0.568 $78.90
737s BUY Down $0.230 6.16 $1.42 -- 105 166 $0.219 $0.345 0.564 $80.32
737s BUY Down $0.230 3.84 $0.88 -- 105 170 $0.219 $0.343 0.561 $81.20
738s BUY Down $0.200 5.74 $1.15 -- 105 176 $0.219 $0.338 0.557 $82.35
738s BUY Down $0.200 4.26 $0.85 -- 105 180 $0.219 $0.335 0.553 $83.20
739s BUY Down $0.190 5.75 $1.09 -- 105 186 $0.219 $0.330 0.549 $84.29
739s BUY Down $0.190 4.25 $0.81 -- 105 190 $0.219 $0.327 0.546 $85.10
740s BUY Down $0.160 6.88 $1.10 -- 105 197 $0.219 $0.321 0.540 $86.20
740s BUY Down $0.160 3.12 $0.50 -- 105 200 $0.219 $0.319 0.537 $86.70
740s BUY Down $0.150 6.03 $0.90 -- 105 206 $0.219 $0.314 0.532 $87.60
740s BUY Down $0.150 3.97 $0.60 -- 105 210 $0.219 $0.311 0.529 $88.20
741s BUY Down $0.140 5.00 $0.70 -- 105 215 $0.219 $0.307 0.525 $88.90
742s BUY Down $0.120 5.75 $0.69 -- 105 221 $0.219 $0.302 0.520 $89.59
742s BUY Down $0.120 4.25 $0.51 -- 105 225 $0.219 $0.298 0.517 $90.10
742s BUY Down $0.130 6.15 $0.80 -- 105 231 $0.219 $0.294 0.512 $90.90
743s BUY Down $0.130 3.85 $0.50 -- 105 235 $0.219 $0.291 0.510 $91.40
743s BUY Down $0.110 5.00 $0.55 -- 105 240 $0.219 $0.287 0.506 $91.95
744s BUY Down $0.100 5.37 $0.54 -- 105 245 $0.219 $0.283 0.502 $92.49
744s BUY Down $0.100 4.63 $0.46 -- 105 250 $0.219 $0.280 0.499 $92.95
745s BUY Down $0.100 5.00 $0.50 -- 105 255 $0.219 $0.277 0.495 $93.45
746s BUY Down $0.090 6.64 $0.60 -- 105 262 $0.219 $0.272 0.490 $94.05
746s BUY Down $0.090 3.36 $0.30 -- 105 265 $0.219 $0.269 0.488 $94.35
746s BUY Down $0.080 6.11 $0.49 -- 105 271 $0.219 $0.265 0.484 $94.84
747s BUY Down $0.080 3.89 $0.31 -- 105 275 $0.219 $0.263 0.481 $95.15
755s BUY Down $0.150 5.00 $0.75 -- 105 280 $0.219 $0.261 0.479 $95.90
770s BUY Down $0.190 6.82 $1.30 -- 105 287 $0.219 $0.259 0.477 $97.20
770s BUY Down $0.190 3.18 $0.60 -- 105 290 $0.219 $0.258 0.477 $97.80
774s BUY Down $0.130 5.66 $0.74 -- 105 296 $0.219 $0.256 0.474 $98.54
774s BUY Down $0.130 4.34 $0.56 -- 105 300 $0.219 $0.254 0.472 $99.10
775s BUY Down $0.120 5.00 $0.60 -- 105 305 $0.219 $0.252 0.470 $99.70
784s BUY Down $0.130 6.72 $0.87 -- 105 312 $0.219 $0.249 0.468 $100.57
784s BUY Down $0.130 3.28 $0.43 -- 105 315 $0.219 $0.248 0.466 $101.00
785s BUY Down $0.090 5.00 $0.45 -- 105 320 $0.219 $0.245 0.464 $101.45
788s BUY Down $0.080 5.00 $0.40 -- 105 325 $0.219 $0.243 0.461 $101.85
789s BUY Down $0.050 5.00 $0.25 -- 105 330 $0.219 $0.240 0.458 $102.10