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20260504_134500_BTC_1_v8.6_dryrun_paperfill.jsonl

BTC 15m btc-updown-15m-1777902300
Winner: DN
Strategy
v8.6
Question
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET
Run Note
v86-david
Mode
paper-fill
Inferred P&L
$-20.70
Guaranteed P&L
$-20.70
Winner
DOWN
BTC Move
-80.88
Total Cost
115.7558
Fills
132
Orders
1082
Fees Paid
$0.00
0 takers

Position evolution

taker buy taker sell

PSum & Guaranteed P&L

taker buy taker sell
Trade Log (132) Fills by Price (57) Per Minute (14) Event Log (989)
t Side Outcome Price Size USDC Fee UP shares DN shares UP avg DN avg PSum Net cost
0s BUY Down $0.470 5.00 $2.35 -- 0 5 -- $0.470 -- $2.35
0s BUY Down $0.460 5.00 $2.30 -- 0 10 -- $0.465 -- $4.65
1s BUY Down $0.450 5.00 $2.25 -- 0 15 -- $0.460 -- $6.90
19s BUY Down $0.470 5.00 $2.35 -- 0 20 -- $0.463 -- $9.25
20s BUY Down $0.460 5.00 $2.30 -- 0 25 -- $0.462 -- $11.55
22s BUY Down $0.440 5.00 $2.20 -- 0 30 -- $0.458 -- $13.75
23s BUY Down $0.430 5.00 $2.15 -- 0 35 -- $0.454 -- $15.90
24s BUY Down $0.420 5.00 $2.10 -- 0 40 -- $0.450 -- $18.00
41s BUY Down $0.440 5.00 $2.20 -- 0 45 -- $0.449 -- $20.20
50s BUY Down $0.470 5.00 $2.35 -- 0 50 -- $0.451 -- $22.55
58s BUY Down $0.470 6.09 $2.86 -- 0 56 -- $0.453 -- $25.41
60s BUY Down $0.470 3.91 $1.84 -- 0 60 -- $0.454 -- $27.25
65s BUY Down $0.450 5.01 $2.25 -- 0 65 -- $0.454 -- $29.50
66s BUY Down $0.450 4.99 $2.25 -- 0 70 -- $0.454 -- $31.75
66s BUY Down $0.440 5.81 $2.56 -- 0 76 -- $0.453 -- $34.31
66s BUY Down $0.440 4.19 $1.84 -- 0 80 -- $0.452 -- $36.15
68s BUY Down $0.400 6.92 $2.77 -- 0 87 -- $0.448 -- $38.92
68s BUY Down $0.400 3.08 $1.23 -- 0 90 -- $0.446 -- $40.15
69s BUY Down $0.380 5.86 $2.23 -- 0 96 -- $0.442 -- $42.38
69s BUY Down $0.380 4.14 $1.57 -- 0 100 -- $0.440 -- $43.95
94s BUY Down $0.400 5.00 $2.00 -- 0 105 -- $0.438 -- $45.95
96s BUY Down $0.440 5.00 $2.20 -- 0 110 -- $0.438 -- $48.15
105s BUY Down $0.420 5.00 $2.10 -- 0 115 -- $0.437 -- $50.25
127s BUY Down $0.400 5.00 $2.00 -- 0 120 -- $0.435 -- $52.25
128s BUY Down $0.380 5.83 $2.21 -- 0 126 -- $0.433 -- $54.46
128s BUY Down $0.380 4.17 $1.59 -- 0 130 -- $0.431 -- $56.05
129s BUY Down $0.370 5.14 $1.90 -- 0 135 -- $0.429 -- $57.95
129s BUY Down $0.370 4.86 $1.80 -- 0 140 -- $0.427 -- $59.75
137s BUY Down $0.350 6.05 $2.12 -- 0 146 -- $0.424 -- $61.87
137s BUY Down $0.350 3.95 $1.38 -- 0 150 -- $0.422 -- $63.25
169s BUY Down $0.460 5.00 $2.30 -- 0 155 -- $0.423 -- $65.55
174s BUY Down $0.450 5.00 $2.25 -- 0 160 -- $0.424 -- $67.80
184s BUY Down $0.430 6.83 $2.94 -- 0 167 -- $0.424 -- $70.74
184s BUY Down $0.430 3.17 $1.36 -- 0 170 -- $0.424 -- $72.10
184s BUY Down $0.410 5.19 $2.13 -- 0 175 -- $0.424 -- $74.23
184s BUY Down $0.410 4.81 $1.97 -- 0 180 -- $0.423 -- $76.20
185s BUY Down $0.390 5.00 $1.95 -- 0 185 -- $0.422 -- $78.15
195s BUY Down $0.380 6.69 $2.54 -- 0 192 -- $0.421 -- $80.69
196s BUY Down $0.380 3.31 $1.26 -- 0 195 -- $0.420 -- $81.95
200s BUY Down $0.370 5.53 $2.05 -- 0 201 -- $0.419 -- $84.00
202s BUY Down $0.370 4.47 $1.65 -- 0 205 -- $0.418 -- $85.65
220s BUY Up $0.440 5.88 $2.59 -- 6 205 $0.440 $0.418 0.858 $88.24
220s BUY Up $0.440 4.12 $1.81 -- 10 205 $0.440 $0.418 0.858 $90.05
221s SELL Down $0.570 5.00 $2.85 -- 10 200 $0.440 $0.414 0.854 $87.20
223s SELL Down $0.580 5.00 $2.90 -- 10 195 $0.440 $0.410 0.850 $84.30
223s SELL Down $0.590 5.00 $2.95 -- 10 190 $0.440 $0.405 0.845 $81.35
225s BUY Up $0.400 6.16 $2.46 -- 16 190 $0.425 $0.405 0.830 $83.81
225s SELL Down $0.600 5.00 $3.00 -- 16 185 $0.425 $0.400 0.825 $80.81
225s BUY Up $0.400 3.84 $1.54 -- 20 185 $0.420 $0.400 0.820 $82.35
226s SELL Down $0.610 5.00 $3.05 -- 20 180 $0.420 $0.394 0.814 $79.30
246s BUY Up $0.400 6.86 $2.74 -- 27 180 $0.415 $0.394 0.809 $82.04
246s SELL Down $0.600 5.00 $3.00 -- 27 175 $0.415 $0.388 0.803 $79.04
246s BUY Up $0.400 3.14 $1.26 -- 30 175 $0.413 $0.388 0.801 $80.30
247s SELL Down $0.630 5.00 $3.15 -- 30 170 $0.413 $0.381 0.794 $77.15
249s SELL Down $0.640 5.00 $3.20 -- 30 165 $0.413 $0.373 0.786 $73.95
252s SELL Down $0.630 5.00 $3.15 -- 30 160 $0.413 $0.365 0.778 $70.80
259s SELL Down $0.590 5.00 $2.95 -- 30 155 $0.413 $0.358 0.771 $67.85
267s SELL Down $0.530 5.00 $2.65 -- 30 150 $0.413 $0.352 0.765 $65.20
270s SELL Down $0.540 5.00 $2.70 -- 30 145 $0.413 $0.345 0.759 $62.50
270s SELL Down $0.550 5.00 $2.75 -- 30 140 $0.413 $0.338 0.751 $59.75
276s SELL Down $0.560 5.00 $2.80 -- 30 135 $0.413 $0.330 0.743 $56.95
279s BUY Up $0.420 5.00 $2.10 -- 35 135 $0.414 $0.330 0.744 $59.05
279s SELL Down $0.580 5.00 $2.90 -- 35 130 $0.414 $0.320 0.735 $56.15
303s SELL Down $0.480 5.00 $2.40 -- 35 125 $0.414 $0.314 0.728 $53.75
304s SELL Down $0.490 5.00 $2.45 -- 35 120 $0.414 $0.307 0.721 $51.30
305s SELL Down $0.520 5.00 $2.60 -- 35 115 $0.414 $0.297 0.712 $48.70
305s BUY Up $0.470 6.62 $3.11 -- 42 115 $0.423 $0.297 0.721 $51.81
307s BUY Up $0.470 3.38 $1.59 -- 45 115 $0.427 $0.297 0.724 $53.40
311s SELL Down $0.510 5.00 $2.55 -- 45 110 $0.427 $0.288 0.714 $50.85
313s BUY Up $0.470 5.00 $2.35 -- 50 110 $0.431 $0.288 0.719 $53.20
313s SELL Down $0.530 5.00 $2.65 -- 50 105 $0.431 $0.276 0.707 $50.55
317s SELL Down $0.550 5.00 $2.75 -- 50 100 $0.431 $0.263 0.694 $47.80
335s SELL Down $0.550 5.00 $2.75 -- 50 95 $0.431 $0.247 0.678 $45.05
335s BUY Up $0.440 5.00 $2.20 -- 55 95 $0.432 $0.247 0.679 $47.25
341s SELL Down $0.570 5.00 $2.85 -- 55 90 $0.432 $0.229 0.661 $44.40
344s BUY Up $0.410 5.00 $2.05 -- 60 90 $0.430 $0.229 0.659 $46.45
344s SELL Down $0.590 5.00 $2.95 -- 60 85 $0.430 $0.208 0.638 $43.50
356s SELL Down $0.580 5.00 $2.90 -- 60 80 $0.430 $0.185 0.615 $40.60
357s SELL Down $0.610 5.00 $3.05 -- 60 75 $0.430 $0.157 0.587 $37.55
357s BUY Up $0.380 5.00 $1.90 -- 65 75 $0.426 $0.157 0.583 $39.45
374s BUY Up $0.370 6.35 $2.35 -- 71 75 $0.421 $0.157 0.578 $41.80
374s BUY Up $0.370 3.65 $1.35 -- 75 75 $0.419 $0.157 0.575 $43.15
397s BUY Up $0.400 5.29 $2.12 -- 80 75 $0.417 $0.157 0.574 $45.27
397s BUY Up $0.400 4.71 $1.88 -- 85 75 $0.416 $0.157 0.573 $47.15
397s BUY Up $0.360 6.02 $2.17 -- 91 75 $0.413 $0.157 0.569 $49.32
397s BUY Up $0.360 3.98 $1.43 -- 95 75 $0.410 $0.157 0.567 $50.75
403s BUY Up $0.350 5.02 $1.76 -- 100 75 $0.407 $0.157 0.564 $52.51
403s BUY Up $0.350 4.98 $1.74 -- 105 75 $0.405 $0.157 0.561 $54.25
411s BUY Up $0.250 5.35 $1.34 -- 110 75 $0.397 $0.157 0.554 $55.59
412s BUY Up $0.250 4.65 $1.16 -- 115 75 $0.391 $0.157 0.548 $56.75
427s BUY Up $0.220 6.77 $1.49 -- 122 75 $0.382 $0.157 0.538 $58.24
427s BUY Up $0.220 3.23 $0.71 -- 125 75 $0.378 $0.157 0.534 $58.95
449s BUY Up $0.180 5.00 $0.90 -- 130 75 $0.370 $0.157 0.527 $59.85
466s BUY Up $0.230 6.78 $1.56 -- 137 75 $0.363 $0.157 0.520 $61.41
466s BUY Up $0.230 3.22 $0.74 -- 140 75 $0.360 $0.157 0.517 $62.15
485s BUY Up $0.240 5.00 $1.20 -- 145 75 $0.356 $0.157 0.512 $63.35
492s BUY Up $0.220 5.00 $1.10 -- 150 75 $0.351 $0.157 0.508 $64.45
494s BUY Up $0.190 5.00 $0.95 -- 155 75 $0.346 $0.157 0.503 $65.40
504s BUY Up $0.200 5.00 $1.00 -- 160 75 $0.342 $0.157 0.498 $66.40
529s BUY Up $0.110 5.27 $0.58 -- 165 75 $0.334 $0.157 0.491 $66.98
529s BUY Up $0.110 4.73 $0.52 -- 170 75 $0.328 $0.157 0.485 $67.50
543s BUY Up $0.100 6.16 $0.62 -- 176 75 $0.320 $0.157 0.477 $68.12
549s BUY Up $0.100 3.84 $0.38 -- 180 75 $0.315 $0.157 0.472 $68.50
603s BUY Up $0.250 5.00 $1.25 -- 185 75 $0.314 $0.157 0.470 $69.75
605s BUY Up $0.240 6.24 $1.50 -- 191 75 $0.311 $0.157 0.468 $71.25
605s BUY Up $0.240 3.76 $0.90 -- 195 75 $0.310 $0.157 0.466 $72.15
614s BUY Up $0.250 6.56 $1.64 -- 202 75 $0.308 $0.157 0.465 $73.79
614s BUY Up $0.250 3.44 $0.86 -- 205 75 $0.307 $0.157 0.464 $74.65
614s BUY Up $0.240 5.00 $1.20 -- 210 75 $0.305 $0.157 0.462 $75.85
666s BUY Up $0.330 5.00 $1.65 -- 215 75 $0.306 $0.157 0.463 $77.50
666s BUY Up $0.310 5.00 $1.55 -- 220 75 $0.306 $0.157 0.463 $79.05
671s SELL Up $0.400 5.00 $2.00 -- 215 75 $0.304 $0.157 0.460 $77.05
673s BUY Up $0.360 6.80 $2.45 -- 222 75 $0.305 $0.157 0.462 $79.50
673s BUY Up $0.360 3.20 $1.15 -- 225 75 $0.306 $0.157 0.463 $80.65
688s BUY Up $0.290 5.19 $1.50 -- 230 75 $0.306 $0.157 0.463 $82.15
688s BUY Up $0.290 4.81 $1.40 -- 235 75 $0.305 $0.157 0.462 $83.55
689s BUY Up $0.250 6.26 $1.56 -- 241 75 $0.304 $0.157 0.461 $85.11
689s BUY Up $0.250 3.74 $0.94 -- 245 75 $0.303 $0.157 0.460 $86.05
690s BUY Up $0.210 6.99 $1.47 -- 252 75 $0.301 $0.157 0.457 $87.52
690s BUY Up $0.210 3.01 $0.63 -- 255 75 $0.300 $0.157 0.456 $88.15
690s BUY Up $0.150 6.80 $1.02 -- 262 75 $0.296 $0.157 0.452 $89.17
690s BUY Up $0.150 3.20 $0.48 -- 265 75 $0.294 $0.157 0.451 $89.65
690s BUY Up $0.110 5.00 $0.55 -- 270 75 $0.291 $0.157 0.447 $90.20
695s BUY Up $0.160 6.96 $1.11 -- 277 75 $0.287 $0.157 0.444 $91.31
696s BUY Up $0.160 3.04 $0.49 -- 280 75 $0.286 $0.157 0.443 $91.80
730s BUY Up $0.200 5.00 $1.00 -- 285 75 $0.284 $0.157 0.441 $92.80
741s BUY Up $0.130 5.00 $0.65 -- 290 75 $0.282 $0.157 0.438 $93.45
743s BUY Up $0.120 5.81 $0.70 -- 296 75 $0.279 $0.157 0.435 $94.15
743s BUY Up $0.120 4.19 $0.50 -- 300 75 $0.276 $0.157 0.433 $94.65
757s BUY Up $0.090 5.00 $0.45 -- 305 75 $0.273 $0.157 0.430 $95.10
759s BUY Up $0.050 5.00 $0.25 -- 310 75 $0.270 $0.157 0.426 $95.35
782s BUY Up $0.070 5.00 $0.35 -- 315 75 $0.267 $0.157 0.423 $95.70