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20260504_133000_BTC_1_v8.6_dryrun_paperfill.jsonl

BTC 15m btc-updown-15m-1777901400
Winner: DN
Strategy
v8.6
Question
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET
Run Note
v86-david
Mode
paper-fill
Inferred P&L
$88.75
Guaranteed P&L
$83.75
Winner
DOWN
BTC Move
-131.26
Total Cost
18.1638
Fills
151
Orders
733
Fees Paid
$0.00
0 takers

Position evolution

taker buy taker sell

PSum & Guaranteed P&L

taker buy taker sell
Trade Log (151) Fills by Price (59) Per Minute (12) Event Log (1018)
t Side Outcome Price Size USDC Fee UP shares DN shares UP avg DN avg PSum Net cost
0s BUY Down $0.460 5.00 $2.30 -- 0 5 -- $0.460 -- $2.30
4s BUY Down $0.450 5.00 $2.25 -- 0 10 -- $0.455 -- $4.55
5s BUY Down $0.440 5.00 $2.20 -- 0 15 -- $0.450 -- $6.75
6s BUY Down $0.420 5.00 $2.10 -- 0 20 -- $0.443 -- $8.85
11s BUY Down $0.470 5.00 $2.35 -- 0 25 -- $0.448 -- $11.20
50s BUY Down $0.470 5.00 $2.35 -- 0 30 -- $0.452 -- $13.55
51s BUY Down $0.460 5.00 $2.30 -- 0 35 -- $0.453 -- $15.85
56s BUY Down $0.430 5.00 $2.15 -- 0 40 -- $0.450 -- $18.00
59s BUY Down $0.460 5.77 $2.65 -- 0 46 -- $0.451 -- $20.65
59s BUY Down $0.460 4.23 $1.95 -- 0 50 -- $0.452 -- $22.60
61s BUY Down $0.450 6.09 $2.74 -- 0 56 -- $0.452 -- $25.34
61s BUY Down $0.450 3.91 $1.76 -- 0 60 -- $0.452 -- $27.10
112s BUY Down $0.470 5.00 $2.35 -- 0 65 -- $0.453 -- $29.45
113s BUY Down $0.430 5.00 $2.15 -- 0 70 -- $0.451 -- $31.60
113s BUY Down $0.420 5.00 $2.10 -- 0 75 -- $0.449 -- $33.70
121s BUY Down $0.470 6.19 $2.91 -- 0 81 -- $0.451 -- $36.61
121s BUY Down $0.470 3.81 $1.79 -- 0 85 -- $0.452 -- $38.40
122s BUY Down $0.450 5.66 $2.55 -- 0 91 -- $0.452 -- $40.95
122s BUY Down $0.450 4.34 $1.95 -- 0 95 -- $0.452 -- $42.90
123s BUY Down $0.440 5.73 $2.52 -- 0 101 -- $0.451 -- $45.42
123s BUY Down $0.440 4.27 $1.88 -- 0 105 -- $0.451 -- $47.30
123s BUY Down $0.420 5.00 $2.10 -- 0 110 -- $0.449 -- $49.40
133s BUY Down $0.450 5.00 $2.25 -- 0 115 -- $0.449 -- $51.65
133s BUY Down $0.430 5.00 $2.15 -- 0 120 -- $0.448 -- $53.80
137s BUY Down $0.410 5.83 $2.39 -- 0 126 -- $0.447 -- $56.19
138s BUY Down $0.410 4.17 $1.71 -- 0 130 -- $0.445 -- $57.90
138s BUY Down $0.400 5.14 $2.06 -- 0 135 -- $0.444 -- $59.96
138s BUY Down $0.400 4.86 $1.94 -- 0 140 -- $0.442 -- $61.90
139s BUY Down $0.390 6.05 $2.36 -- 0 146 -- $0.440 -- $64.26
139s BUY Down $0.390 3.95 $1.54 -- 0 150 -- $0.439 -- $65.80
156s BUY Down $0.440 5.00 $2.20 -- 0 155 -- $0.439 -- $68.00
157s BUY Down $0.410 6.83 $2.80 -- 0 162 -- $0.438 -- $70.80
157s BUY Down $0.410 3.17 $1.30 -- 0 165 -- $0.437 -- $72.10
157s BUY Down $0.400 5.19 $2.07 -- 0 170 -- $0.436 -- $74.17
158s BUY Down $0.400 4.81 $1.93 -- 0 175 -- $0.435 -- $76.10
162s BUY Down $0.390 5.00 $1.95 -- 0 180 -- $0.434 -- $78.05
211s BUY Down $0.380 6.69 $2.54 -- 0 187 -- $0.432 -- $80.59
211s BUY Down $0.380 3.31 $1.26 -- 0 190 -- $0.431 -- $81.85
224s BUY Down $0.460 5.53 $2.54 -- 0 196 -- $0.432 -- $84.39
224s BUY Down $0.460 4.47 $2.06 -- 0 200 -- $0.432 -- $86.45
239s BUY Down $0.360 5.88 $2.12 -- 0 206 -- $0.430 -- $88.57
239s BUY Down $0.360 4.12 $1.48 -- 0 210 -- $0.429 -- $90.05
264s BUY Down $0.400 5.00 $2.00 -- 0 215 -- $0.428 -- $92.05
267s BUY Down $0.410 5.00 $2.05 -- 0 220 -- $0.428 -- $94.10
268s BUY Down $0.380 5.00 $1.90 -- 0 225 -- $0.427 -- $96.00
272s BUY Down $0.360 5.00 $1.80 -- 0 230 -- $0.425 -- $97.80
272s BUY Down $0.350 5.00 $1.75 -- 0 235 -- $0.424 -- $99.55
273s BUY Down $0.270 5.92 $1.60 -- 0 241 -- $0.420 -- $101.15
273s BUY Down $0.270 4.08 $1.10 -- 0 245 -- $0.417 -- $102.25
273s BUY Down $0.200 6.86 $1.37 -- 0 252 -- $0.411 -- $103.62
273s BUY Down $0.200 3.14 $0.63 -- 0 255 -- $0.409 -- $104.25
281s BUY Down $0.300 5.00 $1.50 -- 0 260 -- $0.407 -- $105.75
290s BUY Down $0.290 5.92 $1.72 -- 0 266 -- $0.404 -- $107.47
290s BUY Down $0.290 4.08 $1.18 -- 0 270 -- $0.402 -- $108.65
290s BUY Down $0.280 5.62 $1.57 -- 0 276 -- $0.400 -- $110.22
290s BUY Down $0.280 4.38 $1.23 -- 0 280 -- $0.398 -- $111.45
300s BUY Down $0.340 5.00 $1.70 -- 0 285 -- $0.397 -- $113.15
302s BUY Down $0.330 6.49 $2.14 -- 0 291 -- $0.396 -- $115.29
302s BUY Down $0.330 3.51 $1.16 -- 0 295 -- $0.395 -- $116.45
302s BUY Down $0.320 6.84 $2.19 -- 0 302 -- $0.393 -- $118.64
303s BUY Down $0.320 3.16 $1.01 -- 0 305 -- $0.392 -- $119.65
304s BUY Down $0.290 6.28 $1.82 -- 0 311 -- $0.390 -- $121.47
304s BUY Down $0.290 3.72 $1.08 -- 0 315 -- $0.389 -- $122.55
309s BUY Down $0.270 5.65 $1.53 -- 0 321 -- $0.387 -- $124.08
309s BUY Down $0.270 4.35 $1.17 -- 0 325 -- $0.385 -- $125.25
319s BUY Down $0.240 5.00 $1.20 -- 0 330 -- $0.383 -- $126.45
320s BUY Down $0.230 5.00 $1.15 -- 0 335 -- $0.381 -- $127.60
338s BUY Down $0.290 5.00 $1.45 -- 0 340 -- $0.380 -- $129.05
341s BUY Down $0.280 5.00 $1.40 -- 0 345 -- $0.378 -- $130.45
346s BUY Down $0.270 5.00 $1.35 -- 0 350 -- $0.377 -- $131.80
347s BUY Down $0.260 5.00 $1.30 -- 0 355 -- $0.375 -- $133.10
367s BUY Down $0.270 5.00 $1.35 -- 0 360 -- $0.373 -- $134.45
388s BUY Down $0.470 6.72 $3.16 -- 0 367 -- $0.375 -- $137.61
388s BUY Down $0.470 3.28 $1.54 -- 0 370 -- $0.376 -- $139.15
389s BUY Down $0.470 6.01 $2.82 -- 0 376 -- $0.378 -- $141.97
389s BUY Down $0.470 3.99 $1.88 -- 0 380 -- $0.379 -- $143.85
406s BUY Up $0.450 5.71 $2.57 -- 6 380 $0.450 $0.379 0.829 $146.42
406s BUY Up $0.450 4.29 $1.93 -- 10 380 $0.450 $0.379 0.829 $148.35
406s SELL Down $0.570 5.00 $2.85 -- 10 375 $0.450 $0.376 0.826 $145.50
406s BUY Up $0.420 5.29 $2.22 -- 15 375 $0.440 $0.376 0.816 $147.72
406s SELL Down $0.580 5.00 $2.90 -- 15 370 $0.440 $0.373 0.813 $144.82
406s BUY Up $0.420 4.71 $1.98 -- 20 370 $0.435 $0.373 0.808 $146.80
408s SELL Down $0.600 5.00 $3.00 -- 20 365 $0.435 $0.370 0.805 $143.80
418s SELL Down $0.620 5.00 $3.10 -- 20 360 $0.435 $0.367 0.802 $140.70
425s SELL Down $0.630 5.00 $3.15 -- 20 355 $0.435 $0.363 0.798 $137.55
439s SELL Down $0.580 5.00 $2.90 -- 20 350 $0.435 $0.360 0.795 $134.65
439s SELL Down $0.590 5.00 $2.95 -- 20 345 $0.435 $0.356 0.791 $131.70
440s SELL Down $0.600 5.00 $3.00 -- 20 340 $0.435 $0.353 0.788 $128.70
441s SELL Down $0.630 5.00 $3.15 -- 20 335 $0.435 $0.349 0.784 $125.55
445s SELL Down $0.640 5.00 $3.20 -- 20 330 $0.435 $0.344 0.779 $122.35
446s SELL Down $0.650 5.00 $3.25 -- 20 325 $0.435 $0.340 0.775 $119.10
446s SELL Down $0.700 5.00 $3.50 -- 20 320 $0.435 $0.334 0.769 $115.60
447s SELL Down $0.740 5.00 $3.70 -- 20 315 $0.435 $0.328 0.763 $111.90
447s SELL Down $0.750 5.00 $3.75 -- 20 310 $0.435 $0.321 0.756 $108.15
454s SELL Down $0.730 5.00 $3.65 -- 20 305 $0.435 $0.314 0.749 $104.50
456s SELL Down $0.740 5.00 $3.70 -- 20 300 $0.435 $0.307 0.742 $100.80
460s SELL Down $0.680 5.00 $3.40 -- 20 295 $0.435 $0.301 0.736 $97.40
462s SELL Down $0.700 5.00 $3.50 -- 20 290 $0.435 $0.294 0.729 $93.90
469s SELL Down $0.670 5.00 $3.35 -- 20 285 $0.435 $0.287 0.722 $90.55
474s SELL Down $0.670 5.00 $3.35 -- 20 280 $0.435 $0.280 0.715 $87.20
475s SELL Down $0.690 5.00 $3.45 -- 20 275 $0.435 $0.273 0.708 $83.75
477s SELL Down $0.700 5.00 $3.50 -- 20 270 $0.435 $0.265 0.700 $80.25
484s SELL Down $0.580 5.00 $2.90 -- 20 265 $0.435 $0.259 0.694 $77.35
500s SELL Down $0.480 5.00 $2.40 -- 20 260 $0.435 $0.255 0.690 $74.95
500s SELL Down $0.490 5.00 $2.45 -- 20 255 $0.435 $0.250 0.685 $72.50
508s SELL Down $0.470 5.00 $2.35 -- 20 250 $0.435 $0.246 0.681 $70.15
521s SELL Down $0.390 5.00 $1.95 -- 20 245 $0.435 $0.243 0.678 $68.20
522s SELL Down $0.400 5.00 $2.00 -- 20 240 $0.435 $0.240 0.675 $66.20
523s SELL Down $0.410 5.00 $2.05 -- 20 235 $0.435 $0.236 0.671 $64.15
523s SELL Down $0.420 5.00 $2.10 -- 20 230 $0.435 $0.232 0.667 $62.05
524s SELL Down $0.450 5.00 $2.25 -- 20 225 $0.435 $0.227 0.662 $59.80
529s SELL Down $0.460 5.00 $2.30 -- 20 220 $0.435 $0.222 0.657 $57.50
530s SELL Down $0.470 5.00 $2.35 -- 20 215 $0.435 $0.216 0.651 $55.15
534s SELL Down $0.480 5.00 $2.40 -- 20 210 $0.435 $0.210 0.645 $52.75
535s SELL Down $0.490 5.00 $2.45 -- 20 205 $0.435 $0.203 0.638 $50.30
537s SELL Down $0.510 5.00 $2.55 -- 20 200 $0.435 $0.195 0.630 $47.75
538s SELL Down $0.520 5.00 $2.60 -- 20 195 $0.435 $0.187 0.622 $45.15
539s SELL Down $0.540 5.00 $2.70 -- 20 190 $0.435 $0.178 0.613 $42.45
539s SELL Down $0.550 5.00 $2.75 -- 20 185 $0.435 $0.168 0.603 $39.70
544s SELL Down $0.560 5.00 $2.80 -- 20 180 $0.435 $0.157 0.592 $36.90
553s SELL Down $0.560 5.00 $2.80 -- 20 175 $0.435 $0.145 0.580 $34.10
558s SELL Down $0.570 5.00 $2.85 -- 20 170 $0.435 $0.133 0.568 $31.25
559s SELL Down $0.600 5.00 $3.00 -- 20 165 $0.435 $0.118 0.553 $28.25
569s SELL Down $0.610 5.00 $3.05 -- 20 160 $0.435 $0.103 0.538 $25.20
570s SELL Down $0.620 5.00 $3.10 -- 20 155 $0.435 $0.086 0.521 $22.10
570s SELL Down $0.670 5.00 $3.35 -- 20 150 $0.435 $0.067 0.502 $18.75
570s SELL Down $0.690 5.00 $3.45 -- 20 145 $0.435 $0.045 0.480 $15.30
571s SELL Down $0.720 5.00 $3.60 -- 20 140 $0.435 $0.021 0.456 $11.70
579s SELL Down $0.720 5.00 $3.60 -- 20 135 $0.435 $-0.004 0.431 $8.10
583s SELL Down $0.720 5.00 $3.60 -- 20 130 $0.435 $-0.032 0.403 $4.50
601s SELL Down $0.570 5.00 $2.85 -- 20 125 $0.435 $-0.056 0.379 $1.65
603s SELL Down $0.600 5.00 $3.00 -- 20 120 $0.435 $-0.084 0.351 $-1.35
609s SELL Down $0.600 5.00 $3.00 -- 20 115 $0.435 $-0.114 0.322 $-4.35
613s SELL Down $0.610 5.00 $3.05 -- 20 110 $0.435 $-0.146 0.289 $-7.40
631s SELL Down $0.560 5.00 $2.80 -- 20 105 $0.435 $-0.180 0.255 $-10.20
631s SELL Down $0.590 5.00 $2.95 -- 20 100 $0.435 $-0.218 0.216 $-13.15
632s SELL Down $0.600 5.00 $3.00 -- 20 95 $0.435 $-0.262 0.173 $-16.15
637s SELL Down $0.610 5.00 $3.05 -- 20 90 $0.435 $-0.310 0.125 $-19.20
639s SELL Down $0.610 5.00 $3.05 -- 20 85 $0.435 $-0.364 0.071 $-22.25
642s SELL Down $0.620 5.00 $3.10 -- 20 80 $0.435 $-0.426 0.009 $-25.35
643s SELL Down $0.630 5.00 $3.15 -- 20 75 $0.435 $-0.496 -0.061 $-28.50
646s SELL Down $0.650 5.00 $3.25 -- 20 70 $0.435 $-0.578 -0.143 $-31.75
662s SELL Down $0.650 5.00 $3.25 -- 20 65 $0.435 $-0.672 -0.237 $-35.00
662s SELL Down $0.660 5.00 $3.30 -- 20 60 $0.435 $-0.783 -0.348 $-38.30
662s SELL Down $0.670 5.00 $3.35 -- 20 55 $0.435 $-0.915 -0.480 $-41.65
672s SELL Down $0.670 5.00 $3.35 -- 20 50 $0.435 $-1.074 -0.639 $-45.00
672s SELL Down $0.720 5.00 $3.60 -- 20 45 $0.435 $-1.273 -0.838 $-48.60
672s SELL Down $0.740 5.00 $3.70 -- 20 40 $0.435 $-1.525 -1.090 $-52.30
674s SELL Down $0.760 5.00 $3.80 -- 20 35 $0.435 $-1.851 -1.416 $-56.10
679s SELL Down $0.760 5.00 $3.80 -- 20 30 $0.435 $-2.287 -1.852 $-59.90
680s SELL Down $0.770 5.00 $3.85 -- 20 25 $0.435 $-2.898 -2.463 $-63.75