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20260504_123000_BTC_1_v8.6_dryrun_paperfill.jsonl

BTC 15m btc-updown-15m-1777897800
Winner: UP
Strategy
v8.6
Question
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET
Run Note
v86-david
Mode
paper-fill
Inferred P&L
$13.76
Guaranteed P&L
$13.76
Winner
UP
BTC Move
25.3
Total Cost
93.0912
Fills
112
Orders
203
Fees Paid
$0.00
0 takers

Position evolution

taker buy taker sell

PSum & Guaranteed P&L

taker buy taker sell
Trade Log (112) Fills by Price (58) Per Minute (7) Event Log (954)
t Side Outcome Price Size USDC Fee UP shares DN shares UP avg DN avg PSum Net cost
0s BUY Up $0.470 5.00 $2.35 -- 5 0 $0.470 -- -- $2.35
9s BUY Up $0.430 5.00 $2.15 -- 10 0 $0.450 -- -- $4.50
10s BUY Up $0.370 5.00 $1.85 -- 15 0 $0.423 -- -- $6.35
23s BUY Up $0.340 5.52 $1.88 -- 21 0 $0.401 -- -- $8.23
23s BUY Up $0.340 4.48 $1.52 -- 25 0 $0.390 -- -- $9.75
43s BUY Up $0.420 5.63 $2.37 -- 31 0 $0.396 -- -- $12.12
43s BUY Up $0.420 4.37 $1.83 -- 35 0 $0.399 -- -- $13.95
46s BUY Up $0.350 5.00 $1.75 -- 40 0 $0.393 -- -- $15.70
86s BUY Up $0.320 5.00 $1.60 -- 45 0 $0.384 -- -- $17.30
127s BUY Down $0.460 5.00 $2.30 -- 45 5 $0.384 $0.460 0.844 $19.60
128s BUY Down $0.420 6.19 $2.60 -- 45 11 $0.384 $0.438 0.822 $22.20
128s BUY Down $0.420 3.81 $1.60 -- 45 15 $0.384 $0.433 0.818 $23.80
132s BUY Down $0.410 5.66 $2.32 -- 45 21 $0.384 $0.427 0.811 $26.12
133s SELL Up $0.600 5.00 $3.00 -- 40 21 $0.357 $0.427 0.784 $23.12
133s BUY Down $0.410 4.34 $1.78 -- 40 25 $0.357 $0.424 0.781 $24.90
143s SELL Up $0.610 5.00 $3.05 -- 35 25 $0.321 $0.424 0.745 $21.85
143s BUY Down $0.390 5.00 $1.95 -- 35 30 $0.321 $0.418 0.740 $23.80
144s BUY Down $0.380 5.00 $1.90 -- 35 35 $0.321 $0.413 0.734 $25.70
149s BUY Up $0.470 5.00 $2.35 -- 40 35 $0.340 $0.413 0.753 $28.05
158s BUY Up $0.420 5.83 $2.45 -- 46 35 $0.350 $0.413 0.763 $30.50
159s BUY Up $0.420 4.17 $1.75 -- 50 35 $0.356 $0.413 0.769 $32.25
159s SELL Up $0.420 5.00 $2.10 -- 45 35 $0.349 $0.413 0.762 $30.15
163s BUY Down $0.440 5.92 $2.60 -- 45 41 $0.349 $0.417 0.766 $32.75
163s BUY Down $0.440 4.08 $1.80 -- 45 45 $0.349 $0.419 0.768 $34.55
164s BUY Down $0.440 6.33 $2.78 -- 45 51 $0.349 $0.421 0.770 $37.33
165s BUY Down $0.440 3.67 $1.62 -- 45 55 $0.349 $0.423 0.772 $38.95
165s BUY Down $0.430 5.00 $2.15 -- 45 60 $0.349 $0.423 0.772 $41.10
165s BUY Down $0.420 5.00 $2.10 -- 45 65 $0.349 $0.423 0.772 $43.20
172s SELL Down $0.470 5.00 $2.35 -- 45 60 $0.349 $0.419 0.768 $40.85
173s SELL Down $0.530 5.00 $2.65 -- 45 55 $0.349 $0.409 0.758 $38.20
185s BUY Up $0.370 5.00 $1.85 -- 50 55 $0.351 $0.409 0.760 $40.05
200s BUY Down $0.400 5.00 $2.00 -- 50 60 $0.351 $0.408 0.759 $42.05
202s BUY Down $0.440 5.00 $2.20 -- 50 65 $0.351 $0.411 0.762 $44.25
222s BUY Down $0.410 5.27 $2.16 -- 50 70 $0.351 $0.411 0.762 $46.41
222s BUY Down $0.410 4.73 $1.94 -- 50 75 $0.351 $0.411 0.762 $48.35
227s BUY Down $0.350 5.59 $1.96 -- 50 81 $0.351 $0.406 0.757 $50.31
228s BUY Down $0.350 4.41 $1.54 -- 50 85 $0.351 $0.404 0.754 $51.85
235s BUY Down $0.370 6.16 $2.28 -- 50 91 $0.351 $0.401 0.752 $54.13
235s BUY Down $0.370 3.84 $1.42 -- 50 95 $0.351 $0.400 0.751 $55.55
236s BUY Down $0.360 5.92 $2.13 -- 50 101 $0.351 $0.398 0.749 $57.68
236s BUY Down $0.360 4.08 $1.47 -- 50 105 $0.351 $0.396 0.747 $59.15
237s BUY Down $0.350 6.86 $2.40 -- 50 112 $0.351 $0.393 0.744 $61.55
239s BUY Down $0.350 3.14 $1.10 -- 50 115 $0.351 $0.392 0.743 $62.65
239s BUY Down $0.340 5.00 $1.70 -- 50 120 $0.351 $0.390 0.741 $64.35
240s BUY Down $0.320 5.92 $1.89 -- 50 126 $0.351 $0.387 0.738 $66.24
240s BUY Down $0.320 4.08 $1.31 -- 50 130 $0.351 $0.385 0.736 $67.55
252s BUY Down $0.360 5.62 $2.02 -- 50 136 $0.351 $0.384 0.735 $69.57
252s BUY Down $0.360 4.38 $1.58 -- 50 140 $0.351 $0.383 0.734 $71.15
259s BUY Down $0.410 5.00 $2.05 -- 50 145 $0.351 $0.384 0.735 $73.20
262s SELL Down $0.400 5.00 $2.00 -- 50 140 $0.351 $0.383 0.734 $71.20
267s BUY Up $0.400 5.00 $2.00 -- 55 140 $0.355 $0.383 0.739 $73.20
267s SELL Down $0.600 5.00 $3.00 -- 55 135 $0.355 $0.375 0.731 $70.20
272s SELL Down $0.620 5.00 $3.10 -- 55 130 $0.355 $0.366 0.721 $67.10
275s SELL Down $0.650 5.00 $3.25 -- 55 125 $0.355 $0.354 0.710 $63.85
279s BUY Up $0.410 5.65 $2.32 -- 61 125 $0.360 $0.354 0.715 $66.17
279s SELL Down $0.590 5.00 $2.95 -- 61 120 $0.360 $0.345 0.705 $63.22
280s BUY Up $0.410 4.35 $1.78 -- 65 120 $0.364 $0.345 0.708 $65.00
280s SELL Down $0.600 5.00 $3.00 -- 65 115 $0.364 $0.334 0.697 $62.00
280s SELL Down $0.610 5.00 $3.05 -- 65 110 $0.364 $0.321 0.685 $58.95
281s BUY Up $0.410 5.95 $2.44 -- 71 110 $0.368 $0.321 0.689 $61.39
284s BUY Up $0.410 4.05 $1.66 -- 75 110 $0.370 $0.321 0.691 $63.05
284s SELL Down $0.590 5.00 $2.95 -- 75 105 $0.370 $0.308 0.678 $60.10
290s SELL Down $0.520 5.00 $2.60 -- 75 100 $0.370 $0.297 0.667 $57.50
291s SELL Down $0.530 5.00 $2.65 -- 75 95 $0.370 $0.285 0.655 $54.85
297s BUY Down $0.370 5.89 $2.18 -- 75 101 $0.370 $0.290 0.660 $57.03
299s BUY Down $0.370 4.11 $1.52 -- 75 105 $0.370 $0.293 0.663 $58.55
301s SELL Down $0.400 5.00 $2.00 -- 75 100 $0.370 $0.288 0.658 $56.55
303s BUY Down $0.270 6.01 $1.62 -- 75 106 $0.370 $0.287 0.657 $58.17
304s BUY Down $0.270 3.99 $1.08 -- 75 110 $0.370 $0.286 0.656 $59.25
305s BUY Down $0.260 5.71 $1.49 -- 75 116 $0.370 $0.285 0.655 $60.74
305s BUY Down $0.260 4.29 $1.11 -- 75 120 $0.370 $0.284 0.654 $61.85
305s BUY Down $0.250 5.00 $1.25 -- 75 125 $0.370 $0.283 0.653 $63.10
305s BUY Down $0.200 5.40 $1.08 -- 75 130 $0.370 $0.279 0.649 $64.18
306s BUY Down $0.200 4.60 $0.92 -- 75 135 $0.370 $0.277 0.647 $65.10
306s BUY Down $0.190 5.00 $0.95 -- 75 140 $0.370 $0.274 0.644 $66.05
307s BUY Down $0.180 5.00 $0.90 -- 75 145 $0.370 $0.270 0.640 $66.95
310s BUY Down $0.150 5.00 $0.75 -- 75 150 $0.370 $0.266 0.636 $67.70
317s BUY Down $0.200 6.58 $1.32 -- 75 157 $0.370 $0.264 0.633 $69.02
319s BUY Down $0.200 3.42 $0.68 -- 75 160 $0.370 $0.262 0.632 $69.70
329s BUY Down $0.200 6.51 $1.30 -- 75 167 $0.370 $0.260 0.630 $71.00
329s BUY Down $0.200 3.49 $0.70 -- 75 170 $0.370 $0.259 0.628 $71.70
335s BUY Down $0.160 5.00 $0.80 -- 75 175 $0.370 $0.256 0.626 $72.50
338s BUY Down $0.280 5.00 $1.40 -- 75 180 $0.370 $0.256 0.626 $73.90
339s BUY Down $0.240 6.35 $1.52 -- 75 186 $0.370 $0.256 0.626 $75.42
339s BUY Down $0.240 3.65 $0.88 -- 75 190 $0.370 $0.256 0.625 $76.30
339s BUY Down $0.220 6.99 $1.54 -- 75 197 $0.370 $0.254 0.624 $77.84
339s BUY Down $0.220 3.01 $0.66 -- 75 200 $0.370 $0.254 0.624 $78.50
344s BUY Down $0.140 5.00 $0.70 -- 75 205 $0.370 $0.251 0.621 $79.20
362s BUY Down $0.130 6.24 $0.81 -- 75 211 $0.370 $0.247 0.617 $80.01
363s BUY Down $0.130 3.76 $0.49 -- 75 215 $0.370 $0.245 0.615 $80.50
363s BUY Down $0.120 6.56 $0.79 -- 75 222 $0.370 $0.242 0.612 $81.29
364s BUY Down $0.120 3.44 $0.41 -- 75 225 $0.370 $0.240 0.610 $81.70
366s BUY Down $0.110 5.00 $0.55 -- 75 230 $0.370 $0.237 0.607 $82.25
368s BUY Down $0.100 5.00 $0.50 -- 75 235 $0.370 $0.234 0.604 $82.75
370s BUY Down $0.070 5.86 $0.41 -- 75 241 $0.370 $0.230 0.600 $83.16
371s BUY Down $0.070 4.14 $0.29 -- 75 245 $0.370 $0.227 0.597 $83.45
371s BUY Down $0.060 6.80 $0.41 -- 75 252 $0.370 $0.223 0.593 $83.86
372s BUY Down $0.060 3.20 $0.19 -- 75 255 $0.370 $0.221 0.591 $84.05
375s BUY Down $0.050 5.19 $0.26 -- 75 260 $0.370 $0.217 0.587 $84.31
376s BUY Down $0.050 4.81 $0.24 -- 75 265 $0.370 $0.214 0.584 $84.55
383s BUY Down $0.050 6.26 $0.31 -- 75 271 $0.370 $0.210 0.581 $84.86
383s BUY Down $0.050 3.74 $0.19 -- 75 275 $0.370 $0.208 0.578 $85.05
384s BUY Down $0.050 6.99 $0.35 -- 75 282 $0.370 $0.204 0.574 $85.40
384s BUY Down $0.050 3.01 $0.15 -- 75 285 $0.370 $0.203 0.573 $85.55
384s BUY Down $0.050 6.80 $0.34 -- 75 292 $0.370 $0.199 0.569 $85.89
385s SELL Down $0.310 5.00 $1.55 -- 75 287 $0.370 $0.197 0.567 $84.34
386s SELL Down $0.310 5.00 $1.55 -- 75 282 $0.370 $0.195 0.565 $82.79
389s BUY Up $0.110 5.00 $0.55 -- 80 282 $0.354 $0.195 0.549 $83.34
389s SELL Down $0.890 5.00 $4.45 -- 80 277 $0.354 $0.183 0.536 $78.89
390s BUY Up $0.050 5.00 $0.25 -- 85 277 $0.336 $0.183 0.519 $79.14
390s SELL Down $0.980 5.00 $4.90 -- 85 272 $0.336 $0.168 0.504 $74.24
393s SELL Down $0.600 5.00 $3.00 -- 85 267 $0.336 $0.160 0.496 $71.24