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20260504_104500_BTC_1_v8.1_dryrun_paperfill.jsonl

BTC 15m btc-updown-15m-1777891500
Winner: UP
Strategy
v8.1
Question
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET
Run Note
v81-david
Mode
paper-fill
Inferred P&L
$128.05
Guaranteed P&L
$33.05
Winner
DOWN
BTC Move
-9.95
Total Cost
50.7703
Fills
99
Orders
456
Fees Paid
$0.00
0 takers

Position evolution

taker buy taker sell

PSum & Guaranteed P&L

taker buy taker sell
Trade Log (99) Fills by Price (66) Per Minute (11) Event Log (896)
t Side Outcome Price Size USDC Fee UP shares DN shares UP avg DN avg PSum Net cost
0s BUY Down $0.450 5.00 $2.25 -- 0 5 -- $0.450 -- $2.25
1s BUY Down $0.410 5.00 $2.05 -- 0 10 -- $0.430 -- $4.30
16s BUY Down $0.320 5.00 $1.60 -- 0 15 -- $0.393 -- $5.90
24s BUY Down $0.320 5.00 $1.60 -- 0 20 -- $0.375 -- $7.50
25s BUY Down $0.290 5.00 $1.45 -- 0 25 -- $0.358 -- $8.95
31s BUY Down $0.250 5.00 $1.25 -- 0 30 -- $0.340 -- $10.20
32s BUY Down $0.220 5.00 $1.10 -- 0 35 -- $0.323 -- $11.30
38s BUY Down $0.280 5.00 $1.40 -- 0 40 -- $0.318 -- $12.70
82s BUY Down $0.190 5.00 $0.95 -- 0 45 -- $0.303 -- $13.65
156s BUY Down $0.180 5.00 $0.90 -- 0 50 -- $0.291 -- $14.55
163s BUY Down $0.130 5.00 $0.65 -- 0 55 -- $0.276 -- $15.20
165s BUY Down $0.120 5.00 $0.60 -- 0 60 -- $0.263 -- $15.80
196s BUY Down $0.120 5.00 $0.60 -- 0 65 -- $0.252 -- $16.40
196s BUY Down $0.110 5.00 $0.55 -- 0 70 -- $0.242 -- $16.95
204s BUY Down $0.160 5.00 $0.80 -- 0 75 -- $0.237 -- $17.75
264s BUY Down $0.170 5.00 $0.85 -- 0 80 -- $0.233 -- $18.60
285s BUY Down $0.160 5.00 $0.80 -- 0 85 -- $0.228 -- $19.40
394s BUY Up $0.430 5.00 $2.15 -- 5 85 $0.430 $0.228 0.658 $21.55
405s SELL Down $0.490 5.00 $2.45 -- 5 80 $0.430 $0.212 0.642 $19.10
408s SELL Down $0.500 5.00 $2.50 -- 5 75 $0.430 $0.193 0.623 $16.60
409s SELL Down $0.550 5.00 $2.75 -- 5 70 $0.430 $0.167 0.597 $13.85
409s SELL Down $0.560 5.00 $2.80 -- 5 65 $0.430 $0.137 0.567 $11.05
419s SELL Down $0.380 5.00 $1.90 -- 5 60 $0.430 $0.117 0.547 $9.15
419s SELL Down $0.480 5.00 $2.40 -- 5 55 $0.430 $0.084 0.514 $6.75
420s SELL Down $0.550 5.00 $2.75 -- 5 50 $0.430 $0.037 0.467 $4.00
420s BUY Up $0.440 5.00 $2.20 -- 10 50 $0.435 $0.037 0.472 $6.20
421s SELL Down $0.580 5.00 $2.90 -- 10 45 $0.435 $-0.023 0.412 $3.30
421s SELL Down $0.590 5.00 $2.95 -- 10 40 $0.435 $-0.100 0.335 $0.35
421s BUY Up $0.400 5.00 $2.00 -- 15 40 $0.423 $-0.100 0.323 $2.35
424s SELL Down $0.610 5.00 $3.05 -- 15 35 $0.423 $-0.201 0.222 $-0.70
430s SELL Down $0.610 5.00 $3.05 -- 15 30 $0.423 $-0.337 0.087 $-3.75
430s BUY Up $0.350 5.00 $1.75 -- 20 30 $0.405 $-0.337 0.068 $-2.00
434s SELL Down $0.640 5.00 $3.20 -- 20 25 $0.405 $-0.532 -0.127 $-5.20
436s BUY Up $0.350 5.00 $1.75 -- 25 25 $0.394 $-0.532 -0.138 $-3.45
465s BUY Up $0.310 5.00 $1.55 -- 30 25 $0.380 $-0.532 -0.152 $-1.90
466s BUY Up $0.290 5.00 $1.45 -- 35 25 $0.367 $-0.532 -0.165 $-0.45
466s BUY Up $0.240 5.00 $1.20 -- 40 25 $0.351 $-0.532 -0.181 $0.75
496s BUY Up $0.190 5.00 $0.95 -- 45 25 $0.333 $-0.532 -0.199 $1.70
507s BUY Up $0.240 5.00 $1.20 -- 50 25 $0.324 $-0.532 -0.208 $2.90
516s BUY Up $0.120 5.00 $0.60 -- 55 25 $0.305 $-0.532 -0.227 $3.50
529s BUY Up $0.120 5.00 $0.60 -- 60 25 $0.290 $-0.532 -0.242 $4.10
590s BUY Up $0.240 5.00 $1.20 -- 65 25 $0.286 $-0.532 -0.246 $5.30
591s BUY Up $0.220 5.00 $1.10 -- 70 25 $0.281 $-0.532 -0.251 $6.40
592s BUY Up $0.190 5.00 $0.95 -- 75 25 $0.275 $-0.532 -0.257 $7.35
592s BUY Up $0.120 5.00 $0.60 -- 80 25 $0.266 $-0.532 -0.266 $7.95
594s BUY Up $0.130 5.00 $0.65 -- 85 25 $0.258 $-0.532 -0.274 $8.60
596s SELL Up $0.320 5.00 $1.60 -- 80 25 $0.254 $-0.532 -0.278 $7.00
598s SELL Up $0.370 5.00 $1.85 -- 75 25 $0.246 $-0.532 -0.286 $5.15
599s BUY Up $0.400 5.00 $2.00 -- 80 25 $0.256 $-0.532 -0.276 $7.15
602s SELL Up $0.450 5.00 $2.25 -- 75 25 $0.243 $-0.532 -0.289 $4.90
603s SELL Up $0.510 5.00 $2.55 -- 70 25 $0.224 $-0.532 -0.308 $2.35
605s SELL Up $0.530 5.00 $2.65 -- 65 25 $0.200 $-0.532 -0.332 $-0.30
605s SELL Up $0.540 5.00 $2.70 -- 60 25 $0.172 $-0.532 -0.360 $-3.00
606s SELL Up $0.530 5.00 $2.65 -- 55 25 $0.139 $-0.532 -0.393 $-5.65
607s BUY Down $0.450 5.00 $2.25 -- 55 30 $0.139 $-0.368 -0.229 $-3.40
607s BUY Down $0.400 5.00 $2.00 -- 55 35 $0.139 $-0.259 -0.119 $-1.40
608s SELL Up $0.620 5.00 $3.10 -- 50 35 $0.091 $-0.259 -0.168 $-4.50
608s BUY Down $0.360 5.00 $1.80 -- 50 40 $0.091 $-0.181 -0.090 $-2.70
608s SELL Up $0.670 5.00 $3.35 -- 45 40 $0.027 $-0.181 -0.155 $-6.05
609s BUY Down $0.310 5.00 $1.55 -- 45 45 $0.027 $-0.127 -0.100 $-4.50
616s BUY Down $0.450 5.00 $2.25 -- 45 50 $0.027 $-0.069 -0.042 $-2.25
619s BUY Down $0.430 5.00 $2.15 -- 45 55 $0.027 $-0.024 0.003 $-0.10
623s BUY Down $0.410 5.00 $2.05 -- 45 60 $0.027 $0.013 0.039 $1.95
623s BUY Down $0.330 5.00 $1.65 -- 45 65 $0.027 $0.037 0.064 $3.60
624s BUY Down $0.300 5.00 $1.50 -- 45 70 $0.027 $0.056 0.082 $5.10
624s BUY Down $0.280 5.00 $1.40 -- 45 75 $0.027 $0.071 0.097 $6.50
626s SELL Down $0.390 5.00 $1.95 -- 45 70 $0.027 $0.048 0.074 $4.55
626s BUY Down $0.370 5.00 $1.85 -- 45 75 $0.027 $0.069 0.096 $6.40
626s SELL Down $0.410 5.00 $2.05 -- 45 70 $0.027 $0.045 0.072 $4.35
627s SELL Down $0.420 5.00 $2.10 -- 45 65 $0.027 $0.016 0.043 $2.25
628s SELL Down $0.430 5.00 $2.15 -- 45 60 $0.027 $-0.018 0.008 $0.10
629s SELL Down $0.440 5.00 $2.20 -- 45 55 $0.027 $-0.060 -0.033 $-2.10
637s BUY Down $0.400 5.00 $2.00 -- 45 60 $0.027 $-0.022 0.005 $-0.10
637s BUY Down $0.380 5.00 $1.90 -- 45 65 $0.027 $0.009 0.036 $1.80
638s BUY Down $0.300 5.00 $1.50 -- 45 70 $0.027 $0.030 0.057 $3.30
639s BUY Down $0.250 5.00 $1.25 -- 45 75 $0.027 $0.045 0.071 $4.55
641s BUY Down $0.220 5.00 $1.10 -- 45 80 $0.027 $0.056 0.082 $5.65
642s BUY Down $0.190 5.00 $0.95 -- 45 85 $0.027 $0.064 0.090 $6.60
643s BUY Down $0.160 5.00 $0.80 -- 45 90 $0.027 $0.069 0.096 $7.40
648s BUY Down $0.160 5.00 $0.80 -- 45 95 $0.027 $0.074 0.100 $8.20
649s BUY Down $0.140 5.00 $0.70 -- 45 100 $0.027 $0.077 0.104 $8.90
649s BUY Down $0.120 5.00 $0.60 -- 45 105 $0.027 $0.079 0.106 $9.50
650s BUY Down $0.110 5.00 $0.55 -- 45 110 $0.027 $0.081 0.107 $10.05
651s BUY Down $0.070 5.00 $0.35 -- 45 115 $0.027 $0.080 0.107 $10.40
656s BUY Down $0.350 5.00 $1.75 -- 45 120 $0.027 $0.091 0.118 $12.15
657s SELL Down $0.340 5.00 $1.70 -- 45 115 $0.027 $0.080 0.107 $10.45
658s BUY Down $0.380 5.00 $1.90 -- 45 120 $0.027 $0.093 0.120 $12.35
658s BUY Down $0.360 5.00 $1.80 -- 45 125 $0.027 $0.104 0.130 $14.15
659s SELL Down $0.360 5.00 $1.80 -- 45 120 $0.027 $0.093 0.120 $12.35
659s SELL Down $0.390 5.00 $1.95 -- 45 115 $0.027 $0.080 0.107 $10.40
661s BUY Down $0.380 5.00 $1.90 -- 45 120 $0.027 $0.092 0.119 $12.30
662s SELL Down $0.360 5.00 $1.80 -- 45 115 $0.027 $0.081 0.107 $10.50
662s BUY Down $0.330 5.00 $1.65 -- 45 120 $0.027 $0.091 0.118 $12.15
664s BUY Down $0.270 5.00 $1.35 -- 45 125 $0.027 $0.098 0.125 $13.50
665s BUY Down $0.290 5.00 $1.45 -- 45 130 $0.027 $0.106 0.132 $14.95
666s BUY Down $0.240 5.00 $1.20 -- 45 135 $0.027 $0.111 0.137 $16.15
675s BUY Up $0.050 5.00 $0.25 -- 50 135 $0.029 $0.111 0.140 $16.40
681s BUY Down $0.060 5.00 $0.30 -- 50 140 $0.029 $0.109 0.138 $16.70
681s BUY Down $0.050 5.00 $0.25 -- 50 145 $0.029 $0.107 0.136 $16.95